Socio-ecological factors, such as gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization, travel, bodies of water and vegetation, are also associated with dengue incidence. Climate and its variability in temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind velocity, vapor pressure and extreme weather events can impact dengue transmission in terms of three essential aspects: the dengue virus itself, Aedes mosquitoes, and the transmission environment.
ĭengue transmission is affected by multiple factors, including climate change and different socio-ecological factors due to the intrinsic complexity of its transmission being related to virus-vector-human interactions. In 2014, the unprecedented outbreak of dengue in Guangdong Province accounted for over 40,000 cases, which exceeded the historical average by two orders of magnitude and was far beyond the epidemic threshold. Since then, dengue epidemics have shown an increased trend in severity, and a spread towards the north. The first outbreak of dengue was reported in 1978 in Shiwan Town, Foshan City, Guangdong Province. In China, the earliest recorded dengue case was in the Yangze River Basin in the 19th century. Ĭhina is one of the most affected countries, accounting for 27.9% of all dengue cases from literature reviews. According to a report from the World Health Organization, dengue is one of the top ten global health threats in 2019. Latin America has experienced the most severe dengue epidemic in history, with the total number of cases more than 1.3 times the number recorded in 2015. In the literature prior to 2017, 291,964 cases of outbreak-related dengue were reported, most of which occurred in the Western Pacific region (72.4%), followed by the Americas (19.4%). Dengue is the deadliest mosquito-borne disease after malaria, with nearly 4 billion people at risk and over 20,000 deaths yearly. Dengue is spreading in more than 100 countries globally, mostly in the tropical and subtropical regions. The disease is characterized by fever, headache, arthralgia and myalgia. This study hopes to provide meaningful clues and a scientific basis for policymakers regarding effective interventions against dengue transmission, even during outbreaks.ĭengue, as the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne infectious disease, is caused by four dengue viruses and is transmitted to humans via Aedes mosquitoes. Based on these results, three recommendations are offered regarding the prevention of dengue outbreaks: mitigating the urban heat island effect, adjusting the time and frequency of vector control intervention, and providing targeted health education to travelers at the border points. Increasing temperature and surge in travel could cause dengue outbreaks in the future. The interactive effect of any two factors is greater than the impact of single factor on dengue transmission, and the interactions of pairs of climate and socio-ecological factors have more significant impact on dengue.
Results suggest that the temperature plays a dominant role in the long-time series of dengue transmission, while socio-ecological factors have great explanatory power for dengue outbreaks. This study uses the geographical detector method to investigate the interactive effect of climate and socio-ecological factors on dengue incidence from two perspectives: over a long-time series and during outbreak periods and surmised on the possibility of dengue outbreaks in the future. However, little research has addressed the interactive effects by multiple factors on dengue incidence. Studies have examined the impact of climate or socio-ecological factors on dengue, or only analyzed the individual effects of each single factor on dengue transmission.
Transmission of dengue virus is a complex process with interactions between virus, mosquitoes and humans, influenced by multiple factors simultaneously.